Tag Archives: MCB

McCoy Global $MCB.to

Continuing from the post where I said I was sniffing around the energy services names I took a look at McCoy Global. I’m no stranger to McCoy and owned it a few times in the past. The most recent post is from early 2012. I ended up selling in mid 2013 and early 2014.

Background

McCoy is a leader in threaded connections in well casings. They have exposure to onshore and offshore markets. Despite listing in Toronto, they do most of their business internationally.  About 5% of their revenue is derived from the WCSB.

McCoy has worked to remove the high cost manufacturing form their book of business, they outsource as much as possible now. Focusing on supply chain as they have become a global business has been a priority; especially given their size, their geographical exposure and large business customer base.

Current State

Their current backlog was only 9.9mil in Q1 2019, down from 15mil at the end of 2018. 7.2 mil of orders came in April 2019 and this gives confidence that they will survive this lean environment. Their top line has bounced back somewhat after the lows in 2016, but is very far below previous cycle peaks. As you can see McCoy has done what they can to control opex costs.

Valuation

At $0.63 (from a few weeks ago) McCoy has a market cap of just over $17mil and an EV of $12mil. See the valuations below.

Management compensation is reasonable and the board owns 3%. It could be better, but I’ve definitely seen worse in O&G. Several large institutions own significant stakes in McCoy.

McCoy has also continued to invest in R&D and building a suite of products that uses data to ensure the best possible connection and monitoring for the customer. I’m expecting a couple new products by the end of 2019.

Given the ever increasing well complexity (which lend well to McCoy’s products), diverse geographical exposure, off-the-grid size of the business and modest valuation; I feel that McCoy has substantially more upside than downside.

Are you finding any value out there?

 

Thanks,

Dean

Disclosure: the author is long MCB.to at time of writing.

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McCoy Re-buy

Very similar to Flint Energy Services (FES.to), I have been buying shares of McCoy Corp. recently (MCB.to). I sold MCB late 2010, so this is my second kick at the can.

You can see from the chart that MCB has done a good job of taking advantage of the increased economic activity. Ebitda margins are near record and ROC is on its way up. The CCC is at an all-time low.

Why is this…

MCB has been deploying it capital intellegently. They recently (June 2011) announced that they would divest Rebel Metal Fabricators. Rebel manufactures and supplies vac and hydrovac systems to customers operating mainly in Western Canada. Earlier (February 2011) they announced another division sale, McCoy Parts and Services.

Apart these operations aren’t extremely meaningful. But together they show how important capital allocation is to management.

MCB had about $0.68/share in cash at quarter end. They recently announced they would issue a quarterly dividend of $0.03/share. Giving MCB a yield of 3.87%. I would expect the dividend to grow quickly going forward.

As you can see, MCB is trading near the valuation low of q4 2008 on an EV/Ebitda basis. Though we are at a larger premium to tangible book and EV/Revenue. You can see that the share price rebounded sharply and the stock appeared expensive on ttm EV/Ebitda basis. Now that those expected earnings have come in (quicker than I had expected), and shares are down 20% or so, the company is cheap enough to warrant purchase.

As long as we aren’t at peak cycle, I think MCB is worth picking up. Given the current economy and outlook, $4.50 doesn’t seem like a far stretch for fair value.   Upper limit fair value could be $6.00, but we’ll talk at $4.50 (if we get there).

Dean

Disclosure: The author is long MCB.to at time of writing.

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McCoy Update

I have held shares in MCB for about a year now, and what a difference a year makes.

MCB has done a good job of participating in the rebound of capital spending in the global energy markets, particularly here in Alberta. I work in the oil+gas service sector, so I felt comfortable with MCB. My plan was to pick a company that was cheap and had the potential to appreciate when money started pouring back into the energy markets. I don’t mean the share prices of Suncor and Encana, I mean when the major firms started spending again. This is where MCB gets their revenue from.

Last year, MCB’s management was very cautious about the future. Oil was around $70-75/barrel (double from its lows), but spending in the oilsands hadn’t picked up materially. I wasn’t until Q3 2010 when the announced  capital spending projects really started to show up for MCB.

More importantly than price is stability. If oil stays at $90, eventually you will see more spending in the oilsands than if oil was to shoot up to $150, then back down to $75. Stability gives management the confidence to go ahead with those massive capital intensive projects. Here is a 3 year price chart of oil.

 

Here is a one year chart of MCB.

 

I wish all of my picks looked like this after a year, but they don’t. With MCB ploughing through the low-end of my fair value range, I need to revisit the position.

The chart shows how illiquid MCB really is. Small trading volumes can really move this company as there seemed to be a large accumulation of shares.

Deciding when to sell cyclicals is tough. If we are in a secular bull market for oil then not only will the earnings of MCB have a significant tailwind, but so will valuations. I don’t know if we really are in a secular bull market, but I know we are a long way from replacing fossil fuels as our primary source of energy. At $1.50 or less, I wasn’t paying for any real growth, just some mean reversion. At $3.50+, you need growth to justify the price. That growth may happen, but I don’t like paying for it.

As I said, I work in the oil+gas services sector. I have an advantage as to when a slowdown hits, though I wouldn’t use that alone. I guess one could equate it to Buffett counting the rail cars in the train yard.

Since having a net cash position, MCB has announced a dividend. Nothing big (1% yield), but it is a start. The dividend is likely to increase substantially from here as the recovery takes hold. This is a positive sign as management seems to recognize that cash in my hands is better than cash on MCB’s balance sheet doing nothing.

There has been no insider buying or selling.

Current Valuation

  • Priced at a conservative EPV
  • 20x TTM earnings
  • 12x smoothed Owner Earnings
  • 11x Peak earnings
  • 2.3x Tangible book
  • Around 10x 2011 estimated EPS

We can speculate as to a fair price for growth but I am not sure how relevant that would be. MCB hit an all time high of $9.00 in 2006. We are a very long way from those earnings though. If the secular argument is true, then $9.00 might seem reasonable, but that was over 5x tangible book value. At 5x tangible book value, you get $9.65 fair value for MCB. I would consider that a very aggressive growth fair value.

Summary and Plan of Action

Management is confident that 2011 earnings will be higher than 2010, how much higher, I don’t know. There has been a huge move in the stock. We value investors always seem to sell too early, and I must get used to that. I was able to get almost 10% of my portfolio in MCB before it started its run. It is now around 15% of my portfolio. I am uncomfortable with that much exposure at current prices. I will par back my position and look for other opportunities. I will keep 5% of my portfolio in MCB unless there are some other screaming buys in the energy sector (that I can understand).

I just wanted to point out that this is post number 20. I have just inserted my first image. Some things I can pick up right away, others I struggle with. I will give myself a gold star for inserting the image (it is a pretty big step for me).

Dean

Disclosure: The author is long MCB.to at time of writing.

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