Category Archives: Uncategorized

Aug 2021 Update – $CSW/B.to, $OSS.v, $REPH, $ISDR, $ISV.to, $STC.v, $VMD.to, $SYZ.to, $MCB.to, $FRII.to, $MTLO.v, $SVT, $FXC.to, $PZA.to, $URB/A.to, $MCR.v, $KUT.v

TIKR

I use TIKR to quickly look through ideas and check comparable companies. Would recommend. Referral code below.

https://app.tikr.com/register?ref=smob7c

Thoughts on Market Activity

Nothing constructive.

What I’m Reading

I have been reading the book Scarcity. I am enjoying it. Coming from a place of privilege it frames decisions made by those who may have a harder path than my own.

Posts this month

Developments on Companies Mentioned

  • Corby Spirit and Wine Limited – $CSW/A.to & $CSW/B.to
    • Reported fiscal Q4 2021
      • Q was in line with expectations
      • Compression in margins for the quarter due to higher opex
  • OneSoft Solutions – $OSS.v
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • Not much has changed
      • Rev was up with an easy comp
      • Still waiting on some significant news with new customers  signing
  • Recro Pharma – $REPH
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • Showing gradual improvement in operations
        • Verapamil seems to have stabilized
        • Some initiatives underway on business development and clinical trial services
      • Reaffirmed guidance of 68-72 mil and 15-17 mil adj ebitda
    • Purchase of IRISYS
      • 50 mil total
        • Half in cash
        • 6.1 debt
        • Remaining in 9.3mil shares
      • Interesting addition, but comes with dilution
        • Not sure if the ebitda and revenue guidance included this purchase
      • They will provide a more comprehensive update on the Q3 call
    • I’m continuing to monitor
  • Issuer Direct – $ISDR
    • Good q
      • Decent top line growth
      • Private market customer growth up 50%
      • Margins at high end of range
        • Sounds like they are sustainable from this level
      • Looking to continue to invest in products to drive ARPU higher
  • Information Services Corp – $ISV.to
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • Rev up 44% from low base last year and Paragon acquisition
      • Real estate activity in sask is really helping
      • Some delays due to governments focused on covid and economy
      • Paragon likely sees a gradual increase in activity when subsidies are wound down late in the year
  • Sangoma Technologies Corp – $STC.v
    • Announced timing of an Annual and Special shareholder meeting to approve a share consolidation and (eventual) US lisitng
  • Viemed – $VMD.to
    • Reported Q2
      • Rev growth and patient growth returning but not to pre-pandemic levels
        • Expect more growth in H2
      • The company is working to train their sales reps to better support patients with remote monitoring
      • They are also getting prepared in case there is another wave of lockdowns and their sales reps will have a harder time reaching physicians in hospitals
      • Covid related revenue is winding down as expected
      • No material update from OIG findings
      • Guidance was for about 10% yoy core biz growth
  • Sylogist – $SYZ.to
    • Reported fiscal Q3 2021
      • Below my expectations
      • Going to keep an eye on it
        • Currently yields 4.6%
  • McCoy Global – $MCB.to
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • Rev was weaker than expected
      • They had a delay in recognizing an order which made the top line look worse
      • They have had strong orders for the first month of the quarter
      • MCB has been a company that sees activity recover later than many other service companies so not surprising we aren’t seeing strong top line growth
      • They continue to invest in their digital roadmap
      • PPP loan was forgiven
  • Freshii – $FRII.to
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • The majority of the quarter had heavy lockdowns so the quarter is not a good one to measure the business although provides some insight into what mgmt. think of the business
      • They are trialing some new things like energy bites
      • They are driving more revenue from dinner
      • They committed to investing in supporting franchise partners with another 1mil
      • Still have lots of cash – waiting to see what they do with this
      • I am holding and will wait for the company to demonstrate it’s ability to execute during a more normal environment
  • Martello Technologies Group Inc – $MTLO.v
    • Reported fiscal Q1 2022
      • Was weaker than I expected
      • Expenses increased quicker than I expected
      • Hurt by higher $CAD
      • The conference call did have some positive things to say
    • I have been following for a couple of quarters since I sold shares, so far it was a good decision
    • I’m going to stop updating MTLO here, but keep an eye on it offline
  • Servotronics – $SVT
    • I’m no longer following this closely – I won’t do a deep dive unless it trades at a discount to NCAV
  • FAX Capital – $FXC.to
    • Reported Q2
      • Book value at the end of Q2 is $5.45 per share which is up nicely
      • Still have over 80mil in cash to deploy
  • Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp – $PZA.to
    • Reported q2 2021
      • Still plugging along
      • Increased the distribution by 9%
      • Increased store count by 5
  • Urbana Corp – $URB/A.to
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • Still trades at large discount to NAV
  • Macro Enterprises – $MCR.v
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • Better than I expected
      • Gave guidance to near 300mil in revenue in 2021
        • Was 250mil
      • Was carrying an extra 20mil in receivables at the end of the quarter that they received after the quarter ended
    • Continuing to hold
  • RediShred Capital – $KUT.v
    • Reported Q2 2021
      • Was a good q and ahead of my expectations
      • Lots of positive comment on the call
      • Acquisition pipeline strong

Long $OSS.v, $ISDR, $STC.v, $VMD.to, $MCB.to, $FRII.to, $FXC.to, $URB/A.to, $MCR.v, $KUT.v

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December 2020 Update – $REPH, $PSD.to, $STC.v, XTC.to, $VMD.to, $SYZ.to, $MTLO.v

No new profiles this month. It’s been busy with holidays and Alberta has gone into a second lockdown.

  • Recro Pharma ($REPH)
    • New CEO announced (finally)
      • Has a decent pedigree and looks promising
      • The shares have been running a bit, not sure exactly why at the moment
    • George McCabe (Portolan Capital Management) disclosed a 5.47% position in REPH
      • A quick google search shows that they own many positions and that REPH makes up 0.47% of their portfolio. Not exactly meaningful.
  • Pulse Seismic ($PSD.to)
    • Announced a 3.05 mil data licensing sale
      • That is more revenue from the previous 3 quarters
      • Q4 revs at 5mil
      • 2020 revs at 10.9mil
    • Some language in the news release about debt repayment and extension of the credit agreement
    • I think the story has been de-risked to some degree and shares have not really rebounded, but alas this is energy related
  • Sangoma Technologies Corp ($STC.v)
    • Had a data breach during the month of December
    • an update was provided before the end of the month; some highlights
      • no customer bank information was compromised
      • products aren’t affected
      • CEO took responsibility
      • maintaining transparency
  • Exco Technologies ($XTC.to)
    • Reported fiscal Q4 2020
      • Quarter was better than I expected
        • Auto segment bounced back
        • Aided by wage subsidy
      • Bullish comments about the future on the conference call
    • I am expecting the dividend to be increased next year
    • This goes to show that it is so hard to predict how covid will affect these businesses
      • This team has adapted really well to the new environment
  • Viemed ($VMD.to)
    • Acquired 5% in VeruStat for 600k with cash on hand
      • Sounds like it will be accretive in 2021 and seems like a nice new revenue stream
      • It’s nice to see that they are looking at alternative ways to grow the business other than just adding vent patients
    • Shares didn’t really respond to the news
  • Sylogist ($SYZ.to)
    • Reported fiscal Q4 2020
      • Rev up 10% year over year
      • Margins up as well if you remove acquisition related costs and executive bonuses (it’s up to you if you feel that is fair)
      • Still waiting on some activity on the acquisition front
      • Have $43 mil cash plus access to $40 mil credit line
    • These developments are positive. I will be watching this one closely.
  • Martello Technologies Group Inc ($MTLO.v)
    • Announced some sales wins
      • $375k in bookings
      • 120k in users
      • Over the next 12-36 months

Happy and prosperous investing in 2021!

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Bottom Fishing in Freshii – $FRII

I’ve been following Freshii for a few years. It’s a good example of busted IPO. It may provide an opportunity for investors with a strong stomach.

Share Performance

Freshii went public at $11.50 in late 2016. Below is how shares have performed since then.

Look out below. It’s easy with hindsight to criticize those early investors. There was a lots of hype for the business. The CEO is the founder of the company who started the first few stores and grew the franchise quickly. Growth was fast and the establishment was popular. Needless to say there were many positives.

Initial capital was brought in to grow store count rapidly. The inital goal was between 810 and 840 stores with EBITDA of 20-22mil by end of 2019. They ended 2019 with 470 stores. If you purchased shares at $11.50 and everything went according to plan, you were paying 15x ebitda 3 years out. Doesn’t seem that expensive for a franchise with low capital requirements, good growth prospects, incentivized management and a decent economy. Perhaps paying up for growth when it doesn’t materialize can be damaging.

The company invested in talent to source and assist franchise partners in store operations. They had 9 to support 240 stores in 2016. It became evident in early 2018 that they weren’t on track to to have as many stores open as the initial offering documents mentioned. The SSS started to break the previous positive trends and the app was subpar. Eventually in Q3 2018 the company pulled it’s guidance and shares tanked from $4 to about $2.50. The SSS underperformance continued in 2019 and shares continued to languish. Then covid.

Right now shares are not much above the March 2020 lows and trades at market cap of 30-35mil USD and EV of 0-5mil USD. If you purchase shares today, you are getting the business that does 18-22 mil in revenue with low capital requirements for essentially nothing. This of course is assuming that the cash isn’t squandered.

Their franchise fee is 6% of gross store sales. They require franchise partners 1.5% that must be spent on advertising. They use a Master Franchise Agreement for International locations. They have 70 locations internationally.

Part of the value proposition to franchise partners is that the upfront captial required is lower than other potential choices due to lower kitchen equipment required.

Looking Back at Income and Cash Flow

Below is the income statement since they have reported numbers.

Like most franschise companies, FRII has high gross margins. They have been bumping around operating break even since going public.

CFFO (before working capital invesment) has been positive every quarter except Q1 2020.

Risks

It’s important to understand the risks with FRII. The share price wouldn’t be where it is without some hair. All you have to do it enter the cashtag into the search bar on twitter and get a sentiment check on how negative things are.

  • The company’s brand does not carry the same brand value as competitors like Subway, Chipotle, etc
  • The food is quite expensive given it’s simplicity. They have minimal kitchen equipment which means that the food is not cooked fresh and can lead to a poor user experience. The company averages 3.5-4/5 on google reviews.
  • The cash could be spent on things that don’t add value to stakeholders.
  • They may have little or no interest in new franchise partners or existing partners opening new stores.
  • covid
  • The management team is young and has limited capital market experience.
  • There are dual class shares and the CEO owns the voting shares.
  • There are some change in control measures to make it costlier to do a takeover.

Positives

  • The CEO started the company from the first store and knows how to operate a store.
  • If there is a take over initiated, the voting shares only carry the same weight as the common store.
  • The have some CPG partnerships that can move the needle in revenue and customer reach. These include Shell and Air Canada.
  • Expectations are very low and it won’t take much news to move the share price.
  • Despite the challenges, the company has maintained the level of cash on the balance sheet. The company is debt free.

Conclusion

Despite the negativity, I think FRII presents an interesting opportunity. Expectations are low, the business is captial light and management has skin in the game.

Anyone else crazy enough to own this one?

Thanks,

Dean

*the author is long (a very small amount) of FRII

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