Earnings season certainly keeps me busy. I do my best to listen to all conference calls and try to through in some competitor calls as well. I usually don’t revisit my fair value numbers unless there is significant news one way or the other. The other day Nutrisystem forced my hand after dropping 12% the day after earnings.
I have held NTRI since August of last year. After watching the stock go from 13 to 30 in a few months and not taking profit, I felt pretty stupid. In my defense, I had planned on holding for a few years and was having a wedding and honeymoon at the time. I bought more after the last quarters earnings disappointed. This time earnings were beat but the outlook was cautious.
I heard of NTRI from F Wall Street here. For the record, Joe’s blog is one that should be read in its entirety BEFORE reading this one. I put it on my watch list and eventually pulled the trigger. The company was experiencing insane growth sending shares north of 70. But growth slowed, revenues fell, a recession happened (or is still happening depending on who you ask) and the stock came back to earth. Though EBITDA margins over 10% are pretty good for a company with little or no moat, they were over 20% a few years ago. ROIC is very high. The company has no debt and almost $3/share in cash. A current yield of 3.5%, and earnings and margins are starting to rebound after the recession. The company has done a good job of improving time to turn over inventory and accounts receivable, meaning they are getting the accounts receivable and inventory turned into cash quicker. They are also taking longer to pay customers, meaning that the cycle to convert the sale of merchandise into cash is getting shorter, that is a good thing.
Notes from Q2 conference call
- Revenue up 8% vs a year ago
- Margins improvement
- Consumer starting to loosen purse strings
- 31% increase in new customer revenue
- But cautious outlook
- Q3 2010, revenue will likely be a smidge lower and new customers will be flat compared to last year, mostly from the comparison to last year when Nutrisystem D was launched
- Importantly, noticed a real cautious consumer in the last month compared to a trend that started late last year
What we really need to keep in mind with a company like NTRI, is customer captivity or recurring revenue. Most of the sales and advertising expense is to attract new customers. Then once they have them, they need to retain them. The addition of new customers is great, lets hope the retention rate will be high.
I know, I know, the consumer is dead. But, there are some sectors likely to see continued growth, weight-loss is one of them. More and more people are becoming obese and overweight everyday. NTRI might have some sort of moat, but if they do it is razor-thin. People can do the dieting without NTRI, so that is something to watch for. I don’t think the financial crisis is NTRI’s biggest risk, I think it is internal and external competition. Competition from other dieters (Weightwatchers, Jenny Craig, etc.) or external (pharma, grocery stores, etc.).
- Management has given guidance for earnings this year at around 1.10 per share, giving a forward P/E of 17.7. Not cheap, but if you take cash out, you get 15. A little better.
- Current EV/EBITDA of 8.4, using 5 yr average EBITDA, you get 4.8
- My EPV is 30-33
- DCF, though tough to use, gives me 30.
I think NTRI has decent tailwinds. I also think that revenue and earnings have seen their trough this cycle. I think that you can buy around 16 and fair value is 30+, providing the economy doesn’t fall off a cliff and management executes accordingly.
Any comments welcome
Long NTRI at time of writing